Campaigning with President George W. Bush could help brother Jeb
President George W. Bush will make his long-awaited debut on the campaign trail with his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, on Monday. The former commander-in-chief will appear with his presidential candidate brother at a rally in North Charleston, a campaign official confirmed, and the campaign will not bring him to the Upstate.
President Bush has long been a well-regarded figure in South Carolina, where he won 53.39 percent of the vote in the 2000 presidential primary. While his approval rates plunged late in his presidency, nearly eight years after he left office, George W. Bush is viewed positively by many South Carolina Republicans.
"The Obama presidency made him more popular with each year, with each month," said David Woodard, a Clemson University professor and veteran Republican political consultant. "Now, he’s regarded as sort of a distinguished senior citizen."
Jeb Bush's campaign is touting the former president's presence on the campaign trail and endorsement of his brother's national security knowledge as a sign of Jeb Bush's readiness for the White House. In military-heavy South Carolina, which has eight bases, national security and support of the armed forces are key issues for any election.
But George W. Bush is not universally lauded by South Carolina voters; his decisions regarding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were at times polarizing and still define his presidential legacy.
"George W. Bush is the president who had to rally after 9/11 and did well," said Charles Bierbauer, dean of the University of South Carolina College of Information and Communications and former CNN political correspondent. "On the other hand, he led us into two wars that do create a rift in the public appraisal of what he did. Those are some of the burdens Jeb has to carry."
Another rift over George W. Bush that his brother Jeb Bush must face is one within the Republican party. In the wake of the 2008 election of President Barack Obama and the end of George W. Bush's term, the Tea Party began to emerge as a far-right Republican movement that rebuked not only Democrats, but Bush and the issues they perceived the federal government had caused.
"The problem with George W. Bush is his reputation among Tea Party conservatives in particular in South Carolina is not good at all," said Brent Nelsen, a political science professor at Furman University. "I was actually shocked. Having been in Republican circles all my life, Republicans tend to be loyalists. Just after the 2008 campaign, there was all this Tea Party anger and it was focused with not just Obama but George W. Bush. They were saying, 'Both parties got us in this mess.' It was coming from Republicans, and Republicans tend to be very loyal to their party and their lawmakers."
Because of that rift, Jeb Bush must target South Carolina's more moderate, "establishment" Republicans, Nelsen said. Tea Party and evangelical Christian voters tend to prefer ultra-conservative candidates like Ted Cruz, who won the Republican caucus in evangelical Iowa and courted Tea Party and libertarian voters in New Hampshire. Both Bierbauer and Nelsen called George W. Bush's presence on the campaign and in television and radio ads a "calculated risk" that could have modest payoffs in South Carolina.
"Among the moderate conservatives, what you might call the establishment conservatives in South Carolina, George W. Bush is still seen as somebody as someone who spoke to the values of both business conservatives and social conservatives," Nelsen said. "This is a calculated risk on Jeb Bush’s part. He believes the Tea Party folks are already lost to him. He's not going to lose any of them by bringing George W. Bush in. He’s looking to define himself as the establishment candidate."
That definition has been hard for Jeb Bush to achieve so far in the race in part because of an extremely crowded field. Until New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race on Wednesday, Jeb Bush was in a crowded four-person field of candidates considered moderate conservatives aligned with the political establishment. The other two candidates in that field, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio, saw strong finishes in New Hampshire and Iowa, respectively.
But Jeb Bush's campaign rejects the moderate title; adviser Jim Dyke described the governor as "truly the conservative candidate."
Jeb Bush initially shrunk away from the "establishment" label, refraining from mentioning his family's presidential lineage or even including his last name on campaign signage, which instead just reads "Jeb!" But Jeb Bush made a distinct turn towards embracing his family's image and the "establishment" label at the Republican debate in Des Moines, Iowa in January.
"Look, am I establishment because my dad, the greatest man alive, was president of the United States? And my brother, who I adore as well, is a fantastic brother, was president? Fine, I'll take it," Jeb Bush said. "And I guess I'm part of the establishment because Barbara Bush is my mom. I'll take that too."
But will that embrace, taken steps further with campaign stops by former First Lady Barbara Bush in New Hampshire and soon President George W. Bush in South Carolina, carry Jeb Bush through the South Carolina primary and the general election? While George W. Bush was and is popular in the Palmetto State, Woodard, the professor and Republican consultant, is not sure he can buoy Jeb Bush to first place.
"The question is: Does that appeal translate to his brother?" Woodard said. "I don't think it does."
The brothers Bush are not identical candidates, Bierbauer said. Their styles and ideologies differ on some points. But, in the end, bringing his brother on the trail may be a risk Jeb Bush needs to take.
"If you're Jeb Bush and you’re at 11 percent, you should try anything" Bierbauer said.