NEWS

Kasich's initial schedule leaves out the Upstate

Rudolph Bell
dbell@greenvillenews.com

Ohio Gov. John Kasich plans nine stops in South Carolina today through Friday following Tuesday's Republican primary in New Hampshire, where he came in second place.

John Kasich

But none of the stops are in the deeply conservative and vote-rich Upstate, where just two counties – Greenville and Spartanburg – accounted for nearly 20 percent of ballots cast in the 2012 Republican presidential preference primary.

A schedule that Kasich’s campaign released Tuesday morning calls for him to stump along the coast and in the Pee Dee region before heading to Columbia Friday to meet with the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce.

But instead of continuing on Interstate 26 towards the Upstate, Kasich turns around and heads back to Orangeburg, a Democratic stronghold, and from there, on to coastal Bluffton.

His approach is noticeably different from other GOP White House hopefuls such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, whose schedules coming out of New Hampshire include multiple stops in the Upstate.

Kasich’s itinerary may reflect the challenge that a northern moderate faces in the conservative South – even a popular governor and former congressman such as he with a long resume going back to the Reagan era.

It may also signal a bid for Democratic and independent votes as was made by Arizona Sen. John McCain when he ran unsuccessfully against George W. Bush in South Carolina’s 2000 primary. A Kasich consultant, John Weaver, worked for McCain that year.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie planned on taking a similar approach, but suspended his trip to South Carolina late Tuesday after a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary. An earlier schedule released by his campaign had five stops in South Carolina after the New Hampshire vote, but none in the Upstate.

Both Kasich and Christie campaigned in the Upstate once earlier this year.

Kasich is not among the candidates confirmed to attend a forum at Bob Jones University in Greenville on Friday, but he's expected in Greenville Saturday night for a debate at the Peace Center that will be nationally televised by CBS News.

Danielle Vinson, a professor of political science at Furman University, said she figures Kasich and Christie are ceding the Upstate and its heavy evangelical and tea party influence to other candidates such as Cruz or New York billionaire Donald Trump, who won the New Hampshire primary and campaigns in Clemson today.

They “may be thinking they’ll find more kindred spirits in the business community around the Midlands and the transplants and retirees from the North and Midwest along coastal areas,” Vinson said.

Kasich campaign spokesman Rob Nichols said the governor has already visited both the Upstate and the Lowcountry.

This week’s three-day bus tour, he said, is not the only trip Kasich will make to South Carolina before the state’s first-in-the-South presidential preference primary on Feb. 20.

“We will be back, and we will be in every part of the state that we can get to,” he said.

Walter Whetsell, a Republican operative from Columbia, said Kasich’s schedule may not be complete and is “probably as logistical as it is strategic.”

But Whetsell, who worked for former Texas Gov. Rick Perry before Perry dropped out of the race, also said Kasich’s schedule probably reflects his campaign’s political priorities and the number of northern transplants along the coast, compared to the Upstate.

“Without sounding snarky, spend a couple of weeks on Hilton Head,” Whetsell said. “There are more Ohioans in Hilton Head than there are South Carolinians.”

Whetsell said Kasich won’t be able to cede the Upstate if he hopes to win South Carolina’s primary, however. The Greenville/Spartanburg media market covers 45 percent of the state’s Republican vote, he said, emphasizing the region's importance in a GOP contest. That compares to about 28 percent for the Charleston market and about 25 percent for the Columbia market, Whetsell said.

“Anybody that’s going to really come down here and make a play is going to have to play in the Upstate and have to play hard in the Upstate,” he said. “It’s just too big of a block of votes.”