Commentary: Sanford paves the way to oppose Trump

Last week, Rep. Mark Sanford of Charleston laid the ground work to follow Sen. Lindsey Graham in joining the principled ranks of “Never Trump” South Carolina congressional delegates (Sanford would make it plural, Graham is currently the only one). In an op-ed published in The New York Times, Sanford called for Mr. Trump to release his tax returns and emphasized the importance of transparency with the American people.

Says Sanford, “I am a conservative Republican who, though I have no stomach for his personal style and his penchant for regularly demeaning others, intends to support my party’s nominee because of the importance of filling the existing vacancy on the Supreme Court, and others that might open in the next four years. However, my ability to continue to do so will in part be driven by whether Mr. Trump keeps his word that he will release his tax records.”

To be sure, Donald Trump will never release his tax returns. His lawyer, Michael Cohen removed all doubt of that in a CNN interview when he said, “I personally will not allow him to release those tax returns until the audits are over.” The audit excuse is only a thinly veiled dodge since Trump will not release his tax returns for years that he is not under audit either. Why he won’t release them is unknown, but it's a logical assumption that he has something to hide, much the same reason Clinton won't release her Wall Street speech transcripts.

The interview with Mr. Cohen should be enough for Sanford to withdraw support for Trump. In fact, Trump has given him  a beautiful exit ramp. Trump promised that he would release his tax returns, Sanford warned him to do so and then Cohen doubled down on Trump’s refusal. By Trump defaulting on his promise, Sanford could very easily transition from the feckless band of Trump apologists to being a Never Trump visionary.

By Sanford rescinding his endorsement, he would follow the straight and narrow path that Graham forged when Trump first became the presumptive nominee. But not only that, the former governor would be a good example to his successor, Gov. Nikki Haley (who is surely hanging on to the Trump train by barely a thread). His and Graham's stand could make it easier for politicians like Haley and Sen. Tim Scott to follow their lead. Lacking the wherewithal to take that path on their own, at least they might follow Graham and Sanford’s guiding light.

But what would be the point in hanging your own nominee out to dry? In a word, survival. Trump has badly damaged the GOP brand with nearly every group of Americans that isn't already a hardcore supporter. Latinos, African Americans, youth, women, everyone that's needed to win an election in the 21st century has a decidedly unfavorable view of Trump and that could affect the Republican Party in the long run after November. When this horrible election is over, we Republicans will need champions to lead the rebranding effort with those groups of voters. It will be somewhat difficult to be a part of that future when you were a bystander, watching as the GOP was destroyed from within by a con man.

What of the Supreme Court? This is perhaps the only cogent argument for Conservatives to back Trump. Indeed, it appears to be the justification that Sanford has used thus far. But consider this. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump less than a 12 percent chance of winning the election. Even if Trump won Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Iowa and North Carolina, he wouldn't have 270 electoral votes. By the way, he's currently losing all those states to Hillary. Trump will lose and that's why our  only hope for the Supreme Court is to hold on to our Senate majority, which is in peril of being dragged to the ocean floor by Trump’s anchor.

The Senate has already exemplified steadfastness by refusing to budge on Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland. With only a Republican Senate, we may not get another Antonin Scalia, but at least we could prevent Clinton from appointing a 35-year-old communist to the bench. A 62-year-old Garland or some consensus pick would do minimal damage and wouldn't ruin the Supreme Court for conservatives for the next 50 years.

So what will Sanford do? It's hard to say at this point. No doubt it isn't an easy decision to throw your own nominee under the bus. But it's the right one for conservatives. It's the only way to defend the Senate, the Supreme Court and conservatism.

Jordan Morales is a Republican activist in Columbia and an advocate for Hispanic community outreach.